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Jan 2, 2020
Abstract
During the summer of 2017, nine months before the presidential elections, the worst outbreak of wildfires registered in the Chilean history affected almost 530 hectares in Central Chile. The main objective of this paper is to assess the electoral impact of the wildfires on the electoral performance of the incumbent candidate Alejandro Guillier. The statistical analysis shows a negative impact of the size of the burnt area on the votes received by Alejandro Guillier in each district. However, this effect disappears on the run-off, providing weak evidence retrospective voting. Moreover, the wildfires didn’t erode the political support of president Michelle Bachelet. Finally, we find a negative relation between the support of Michelle Bachelet and of Alejandro Guillier.
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